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P.p1 comprehend the "driving f?rces”, the so-called

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0px Helvetica; -webkit-text-stroke: #000000}span. s1 {font-kerning: none}Scenari? planning has been created f? r testing business strategies f? r a series of ? ptions for future development. The meth? d was pr? posed in the 1940’s by Hermann Kahn, a fam? us futurist who w? rked at the Rand Corporation and the Hudson Institute. Like traditi? nal planning, scenari? planning begins with an attempt t? determine what is predictable and what is n? t. But the scenari? is bey? nd the scope of trends or m? dels. Its task is to comprehend the “ driving f? rces”, the so-called “ causal texture”, which f? rms a comm? n structure for the scenari? s. Then within this structure, y? u can devel? p several st? ries for different conditi? ns or opti? ns for the future.

Scenari? planning is the next stage after scenari? forecasting, as a result ? f which vari? us variants of events (scenari? s) were ? btained in the c? nditions of uncertainty of the future business envir? nment. At this stage, the resulting scenari? s are used to c? mpile specific plans in qualitative and quantitative terms. Scenari? analysis is used to build scenari? s of possible devel? pment of the c? mpany, as well as to study these scenari? s. The meth? d is used to select the m? st appr? priate contr? l alternative. Scenario meth? d pr? vides an opp? rtunity to l? ok at the situati? n fr? m different p? ints of view and to assess the c? nsequences and risks when cho? sing a scenari?. For most c? mpanies this appr? ach is radical. C? mpanies have traditi? nally preferred the “? ne solution” strategy, staking ? n a well-defined, in their ? pinion, future and drawing up appr? priate plans.

Large c? mpanies, as a rule, do n? t have experience with several equally p? ssible opti? ns for the future. But as s? on as they rec? gnize that the future can n? t be predicted, the need to calculate several variants of devel? pment bec? mes obvious. Scenari? planning is ass? ciated with the idea ? f ?? existence in ambigu? us, changing c? nditions. It can be applied at vari? us levels. The ability to predict devel? pment trends is an imp? rtant management advantage in an ever-changing business environment. The scenario meth? d focuses the attenti? n of the c? mpany’s management on the pr? bability of certain specific events that are characteristic of a market econ? my.

The scenari? method combines vari? us data that can be ? btained with the help of ? ther methods, b? th qualitative and quantitative. The use of this appr? ach gives the c? mpany s? me flexibility and helps to devel? p b? th strategic and tactical management decisi? ns and alternative activity plans. Scenario f? recasting can include different scenari? s. Two ? pposite scenari? s are usually distinguished: Pessimistic scenari?. In this versi? n, all fact? rs negatively affect the state ? f the company. This scenario sh? ws the worst case scenari?.

Optimistic scenari?. This scenari? shows the best opti? n. In it, all the influencing fact? rs have a p? sitive effect on the financial and ec? nomic state of the c? mpany. The m? st likely is a combinati? n of “ positive” and “ negative” events. Theref? re, the most pr? bable – “ realistic” scenari? s – are also determined. In realistic scenari? s, solutions are most ? ften devel? ped and a strategy is devel? ped.

At the same time, considerati? n of “ opp? site” (? ptimistic and pessimistic) opti? ns helps management to identify fact? rs that, in principle, are imp? rtant for the c? mpany’s future.

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